Daily Market Outlook, February 13, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Markets across a broad spectrum of asset classes faced sharp declines as concerns surrounding tech sector earnings and commodity weakness weighed heavily on equities. Investors shifted towards the safety of Treasuries, leading to significant drops in gold and silver prices, while Bitcoin experienced intensified selling pressure. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 2%. Cisco shares plunged 12% after issuing a cautious margin forecast, highlighting the impact of rising memory-chip costs on profitability. Major tech giants saw widespread losses, and a software-focused ETF declined 2.7%. Meanwhile, Anthropic finalised a deal that valued the company at $380 billion after securing $30 billion in funding, reigniting discussions about AI’s disruptive influence across industries such as logistics and real estate.

Weeks of growing concern over AI’s impact on various sectors have evolved into broader risk reevaluation, following over a year of steady market gains. Some analysts suggested the sharp midday drop in gold prices reflected traders liquidating assets to cover equity losses. Despite robust earnings from major tech firms, doubts about the sustainability of AI-driven growth have deepened, triggering widespread tech stock selloffs. Concerns are mounting that heavy AI investments could strain credit markets, especially as risk premiums remain near their tightest levels since the last financial crisis. Stocks recorded their steepest drop in over three weeks, with investors closely monitoring upcoming inflation data. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped seven basis points to 4.10%, while a $25 billion auction of 30-year bonds saw record demand. Bitcoin dropped below $66,000, gold fell under $5,000, silver plunged 11%, and oil prices declined roughly 3%.

Asian markets also faced setbacks, with a 1.4% drop marking their first decline in nearly a week. Chinese tech stocks were hit as investors trimmed risk exposure ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in mainland China and Hong Kong. European stocks were set for a muted opening, as indicated by futures contracts. Despite recent challenges, Asian technology stocks have shown resilience, with MSCI’s tech sector index surging 22%. South Korea’s Kospi Index, a key indicator of AI-driven investments, has soared 31% year-to-date, making it the world’s best-performing stock market. Oil prices are on track for their first consecutive weekly decline of the year, reflecting cautious sentiment in global markets. On a brighter note, Goldman Sachs expressed optimism about Japan’s equities, citing potential benefits from the nation’s political stability.

In the UK, the goods balance ended 2025 with a record deficit of 8.1% of GDP, driven by subdued demand. Goods imports remain elevated at 20.5% of GDP, though down from the 24.6% post-Covid peak. Exports have continued their downward trajectory, falling to 12.4% of GDP, significantly below the ~14% GDP benchmark seen during past global recessions. Most sectors experienced declines, with only precious stones/metals and beverages showing growth. Vehicle exports dropped 25% in nominal terms. Compared to Germany and France, the UK lags considerably, even as those nations contend with intensified competition from China and US tariff challenges. The UK’s trade surplus with the US has turned into a deficit, while services exports—traditionally a strong point—show signs of slowing. Flat services exports in H2 suggest a potential peak, raising concerns as US-led AI advancements increasingly challenge the UK’s intellectual sectors. Sterling appears overvalued given these trade dynamics.

In the US, January inflation is expected to moderate, with headline CPI likely rising 0.3% month-over-month and slowing to 2.5%-2.7% year-over-year. Core CPI is projected to increase at a similar pace, bringing year-over-year growth to 2.5% from 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve’s target but indicative of disinflation. Estimates from the Cleveland Fed place headline and core CPI at 2.36% and 2.42%, respectively. While shelter and services prices remain elevated, food price pressures are easing gradually. Weak demand and sluggish retail sales highlight economic imbalances despite strong January payrolls, with growth largely driven by trade and AI-related investments..

Overnight Headlines

• EZ GDP Growth Likely Slowed In Q4; Global Shifts Fuel Concerns

• ECB Locked On Hold As Calls For Hikes Fade, Poll Shows

• Fed Chair Contender Warsh Meets Trump, Appointment Bets Rise

• Deal Reached Advancing US Spending Bills To Avert Govt Shutdown

• Trump Warns UK Against China Deals After Starmer-Xi Meeting

• Trump: US To Decertify, Levy 50% Tariff On Planes From Canada

• Trump Tariff Threat Pushes South Korea Into New US Trade Talks

• US Treasury Presses China On ‘Substantially Undervalued’ Yuan

• Japan’s Modified FX Tactics Deliver Short-Term Success On Yen

• Apple Sales Trounce Estimates As iPhone Powers Record Quarter

• Amazon In Talks To Invest Up To $50B In OpenAI

• OpenAI Targets Q4 IPO In Race With Anthropic

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX Considers Merger With Tesla Or xAI

• Anthropic Faces Pentagon Clash Over AI Limits On $200M Contract

• Bitcoin Slumps To 2-Month Low As US Funds Dump Billions

• Gold’s Record Inflows From Asian ETFs Seen By Some As Warning

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1745-55 (4.0BLN), 1.1770-80 (3.0BLN), 1.1785-95 (2.2BLN)

• 1.1800-05 (4.0BLN), 1.1820-35 (900M), 1.1845-55 (3.8BLN)

• 1.1870-80 (1.3BLN), 1.1900 (1.6BLN), 1.1915-25 (736M), 1.1935 (703M)

• 1.1945-55 (4.0BLN), 1.1990 -00 (1.74BLN)

• USD/JPY: 152.00 (1.5BLN), 153.00-10 (384M), 153.15-25 (940M)

• 154.00-05 (1.3BLN)

CFTC Positions as of February 7th:  

• Speculators are making moves in the Treasury futures market! In the latest update, they’ve ramped up their net short positions across several categories. For CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures, the net short position surged by 67,934 contracts, reaching a total of 2,158,980 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures saw an increase of 3,263 contracts, pushing the net short position to 729,414. The 2-year Treasury futures took an even bigger leap, with speculators adding 128,603 contracts to hit a new total of 1,347,602.There was a slight trimming in the UltraBond Treasury futures net short position, which dropped by 4,382 contracts to settle at 269,089. Meanwhile, CBOT US Treasury bonds futures saw a modest rise of 5,437 contracts, bringing the net short position to 13,604.

• Equity futures, speculators in equity funds boosted their net short positions on S&P 500 CME futures by 17,266 contracts, now totaling 437,953 contracts. However, equity fund managers showed a more bullish outlook, increasing their net long positions by 17,515 contracts to reach an impressive 927,508.

• In currencies and Bitcoin, the latest data shows Bitcoin holding steady with a net long position of 1,008 contracts. The Swiss franc posted a net short position of -40,717 contracts, while the British pound recorded a net short position of -13,911 contracts. The euro stood out with a strong net long position of 163,361 contracts. Finally, the Japanese yen showed a net short position of -19,222 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP BEARISH

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 6900 Target 7040

• Below 6900 Target 6750

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1860 Target 1.1960

• Below 1.1730 Target 1.1570

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760

• Below 1.3570 Target 1.3490

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 154.35 Target 157.50

• Below 153.50 Target 151

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4900 Target 5325

• Below 4880 Target 4700

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 71k Target 75k

• Below 70k Target 53k