Type:
Bearish Momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: 823'4
Pivot: 786'4
Support: 736'7
Preferred Case:
On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 786'4 where the swing low support and 100% fibonacci projection are. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 736'7 in line with swing low support, 127.2% fibonacci extension and -27.2% fibonacci expansion.
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 823'4 where the overlap resistance is.
Fundamentals:
Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods, their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for wheat. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.