SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 4/03/25
(ADJUST LEVELS BY +10 POINTS FOR EQUIVALENT US500 LEVELS)
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6025/35
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6080 SUP 5836
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 5906/16
DAILY RANGE RES 5916 SUP 5833
TODAY'S TRADE LEVELS & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE SUPPORT TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: BETA DRAWDOWN
FICC and Equities | 3 March 2025 |
Market Overview:
- S&P 500: Closed down 176bps at 5849, with a MOC buy of $480mm.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): Declined 220bps to 20425.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): Dropped 294bps to 2099.
- Dow Jones: Fell 148bps to 43191.
A total of 17 billion shares were traded across U.S. equity markets, exceeding the YTD daily average of 15.3 billion. The VIX surged 1589bps to 22.75, signaling heightened volatility.
Commodities and Currencies:
- Crude Oil: Down 212bps to $68.28.
- Gold: Rose 115bps to $2890.
- US 10-Year Yield: Declined 5bps to 4.25%.
- DXY (Dollar Index): Fell 93bps to 106.61.
- Bitcoin: Jumped 859bps to $86185.
Sector Performance:
Defensive sectors such as REITs, Staples, and Healthcare led gains, while Technology, Energy, and Consumer sectors lagged. Trading activity, despite the significant moves, felt subdued.
Key Stock Movements:
- NVDA: Dropped 9%, revisiting Deepseek lows due to concerns over tariffs, rumors of CoWoS order reductions, and potential new regulatory scrutiny.
Macro Highlights:
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 50.3 from January's 50.9, reflecting declines in new orders, production, and employment. Prices paid remained sticky, with commentary highlighting tariff-related uncertainties in end markets.
Commodities Update:
- Brent Crude: Declined 2% amid demand concerns and OPEC+ proceeding with planned April production hikes.
- Yields: Continued to decline, with the 10-year yield down 5bps to 4.16%.
Market Trends:
The Mag 7 Index has now declined in 7 of the past 8 sessions, pressured by halted revisions, macro complexities, and index-related selling.
Upcoming Events:
An eventful consumer-focused week lies ahead:
1. Earnings Reports: AZO, ONON, BBY, and TGT (tomorrow morning).
2. Investor Meetings: TGT financial community meeting on Tuesday, alongside earnings and investor days for RCL (tomorrow), WEN, VFC, and TMHC (March 6).
3. Tariff Deadline: Mexico, Canada, and China tariff deadline on Tuesday.
4. Conferences: Raymond James Institutional Conference (Monday) and Morgan Stanley TMT Conference (Wednesday).
5. Macro Data: ISMs and payroll reports expected.
Floor Activity Summary:
The trading floor rated activity levels at 5/10.
- Net sellers were at -341%, compared to a +110bps 30-day average.
- LOs (Long-Only Funds): Ended as $3 billion net sellers, driven by supply in macro tech versus demand in industrials.
- Hedge Funds: Balanced flows, with supply in healthcare, utilities, and staples offset by demand in industrials and tech.
Notably, buying intensity in Industrials ranked in the 99th percentile over the past 52 weeks.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!