SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 31/01/25
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 5970/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6185 SUP 6019
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6065/55
DAILY RANGE RES 6135 RANGE SUP 6051
ETH GAP ZONE 6102-6132 RTH GAP FILL 6122
TODAY'S TRADE LEVELS & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DAILY RANGE RES TARGET 6145/60>WEEKLY RANGE RES
YOU CAN REVIEW WEEKLY ACTION AREAS & PRICE OBJECTIVE VIDEO HERE
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
GS Tactical Flow of Funds: Flash Update FICC and Equities | 30 January 2025 | 3:45PM UTC GS Tactical Flow of Funds: Global competition for dip alpha
I’m receiving numerous messages this morning, so here’s an unscripted note for the team.
There is significant interest in global “dip alpha” within the US equity market at the moment, driven by retail YOLO traders, US corporations, and VWAP retirement allocation demand. This aligns with the January Effect, which is challenging to counter at the beginning of the year.
This flow-of-funds trend is expected to diminish by mid-February, and I plan to adopt a tactical bearish stance on February 16th.
Currently, I am not inclined to take short positions as the flow technicals remain quite favorable. However, I believe it would be prudent to begin incorporating some hedges (trade ideas available) considering the volatility reset (VIX = 15.57).
.SPX 21Mar25 95.0% Lookback Put (daily lookback until 14Feb25): 0.87% offer (compared to 0.66% offer on vanilla, -8d). Maximum loss is the premium paid.
.SPX 20Jun25 95.0% Lookback Put (daily lookback until 14Feb25): 2.11% offer (compared to 1.71% offer on vanilla, -10d). Maximum loss is the premium paid.
When did the trading week actually begin??? My inbox was buzzing with “AI” speculation and “position protection” on Friday night and Saturday morning, and it intensified when equity futures opened Sunday night from 6pm to 6am (NDX - 5.21%). Are you ready for another weekend filled with tariff headlines (2/1)?
I noticed on the message boards that they refer to this as "FUD" – fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The level of FUD was high while the availability of facts was low. I'm free again this weekend for the news! If it weren't January, I doubt we would have recovered this quickly. There's a significant amount of capital circulating, eager for these -5% dips.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!