SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 28/8/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~15 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6420/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6560 SUP 6400
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6450/60
DAILY RANGE RES 6543 SUP 6426
2 SIGMA RES 6605 SUP 6370
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.5
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE 6502/6362
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET 6508
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
Positioning of options NVDA's earnings
The two-day straddles for NVDA suggest a potential movement of +/-6.2%, compared to an average realized movement of +/-5.9% observed during the last 8 earnings announcements. As of today's after-market hours, ETF options appear to be reflecting slightly higher than normal volatility for this upcoming event.
Options Volume:
The trading volume of NVDA options remains high, comprising 12% of the overall single stock options volume. Although this percentage is down from the 45% volume recorded in June 2024, we believe that grasping options positioning is essential for evaluating the circumstances leading up to the earnings report.
Options positioning:
The normalized put-call skew for NVDA over a month indicates that investor positioning resembles levels seen prior to its earnings in May, but is notably lower than the heightened fear levels experienced in April.
SPX movements:
Straddles for SPX indicate a potential +/-0.8% movement in the next two days, which includes NVDA's earnings report, falling below the average implied movement of +/-1% noted ahead of the previous 8 NVDA earnings announcements.
ETF movements:
We provide insights on the top 20 ETFs historically known to exhibit significant movements on NVDA earnings days. Semiconductors and Technology ETFs lead the list and are generally anticipating a larger movement compared to past NVDA earnings.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!