SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 27/01/25
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 5970/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6185 SUP 6019
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 5995/85
DAILY RANGE RES 6174 RANGE SUP 6090
WEEKLY ACTION AREAS & PRICE OBJECTIVE VIDEO TO FOLLOW: NOTE: WE HAVE GAPPED LOWER OPENING THE ASIAN SESSION AT 6102 VERSUS A CLOSE OF 6132
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: THIS WEEK....
FICC and Equities
24 January 2025 | 10:07PM
This week brought some relief with SPX rising by 1.7% (EW +1.2%), NDX up 1.6%, and RTY increasing by 1.4%, while the 10YR remained unchanged at 4.6%. Tariff concerns were less severe than anticipated, leading us to lower our estimate of a ~20pp tariff increase on imports from China to 70% from 90%. The White House seems to be prioritizing growth, and the Stargate announcement provided additional momentum for the tech sector (with ORCL being a significant beneficiary, gaining 14% this week) ... all occurring in a favorable rates environment and a Goldilocks economy ahead of next week's Fed meeting.
The outlook is optimistic. We are experiencing the typical January effect; liquidity has significantly improved; re-leveraging from volatility-control strategies is underway; the blackout period is ending soon; sentiment has declined; favorable seasonality for late January is present; and this is the largest month for equity allocations. (ty Rubner). According to PB, global equities saw modest net buying for the first time in four weeks, driven by risk-off flows, as short covering outpaced long sales (1.5 to 1). This week's drop in gross trading activity was the largest since July '24.
From a flow perspective, LOs ended the week as $4.5b net buyers, while HFs were slight net sellers. The largest buying activity was noted in Tech and Healthcare, while consumer discretionary saw net selling. Top performers this week included China ADRs, Expensive Software, Secular Growth, and Infrastructure, all up +5%, while Oil dropped by 4% and commodity-sensitive stocks remained unchanged.
Q4 earnings have provided strong support for the market ... we observed this in the banks last week and in select individual stocks this week, particularly NFLX, APH, STX, GE, GEV, TDY, and ABT. The overall expectations for EPS are high, with an 8% year-over-year growth forecast. So far, about 15% of the S&P has reported, with approximately 59% of companies exceeding expectations by more than one standard deviation, consistent with trends from previous quarters and above the long-term average of 46%. Next week will be particularly busy, with 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap set to report.
The positioning bar has reset lower in tech. Mega-cap companies need to perform well, and with a stronger dollar, slower year-over-year growth, and significant capital expenditure demands, the situation is not as straightforward as it was in 23/24
An examination of hedge fund positioning in AI through the perspective of thematic baskets reveals that while the overall long/short ratio of AI Power (GSENEPOW) constituents has recently approached two-year highs, net trading flows within this group have been inconsistent over the past few months and have still seen a modest net sell over the last year. This indicates that 1) the recent rise in positioning is largely influenced by price changes/mark-to-market adjustments, and 2) hedge funds have not yet repurchased the majority of what was divested during the period from last June to August.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!