SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 23/9/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6600/6590
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6734 SUP 6595
SEP EOM STRADDLE 178 POINTS - 6282/6638
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER -6705
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6710/20
DAILY RANGE RES 6807 SUP 6690
2 SIGMA RES 6870 SUP 6630
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: M&A MONDAY
FICC and Equities
22 September 2025
S&P up 44 basis points, closing at 6,693 with a market on close purchase of $2.6 billion. NDX increased by 55 basis points to 24,761, R2K rose 60 basis points to 2,481, and Dow gained 14 basis points to 46,381. Total trading volume across all U.S. equity exchanges reached 18.6 billion shares, compared to the year-to-date daily average of 16.8 billion shares. VIX increased by 421 basis points to 16.10, WTI Crude fell by 6 basis points to $62.64, US 10YR yield rose 1 basis point to 4.14, gold increased by 208 basis points to 3,782, DXY decreased by 32 basis points to 97.33, and Bitcoin fell by 237 basis points to $112.6k.
The week started quietly, aside from a few M&A transactions involving MTSR, PINC, HOUS, ODP, and significant gains in major tech stocks (NVDA up 4% due to a $100 billion OpenAI agreement; AAPL up 4% driven by AI optimism and iPhone sales; TSLA up 2% anticipating favorable delivery figures next week). However, momentum in Tech weakened, with the TMT Momentum Pair down approximately 165 basis points for the day, marking its lowest performance this month, primarily due to stronger performance from the trailing leg. Conversely, airline stocks faced pressure from factors such as H1B visa concerns, the RTX cyberattack, flight cancellations in Europe, a typhoon in Hong Kong, and a fare sale by Spirit, along with more consistent revenue updates but disappointing cost reports, causing stocks to retrace to their highs.
Activity levels on the trading floor were rated a 4 on a scale of 1 to 10. The floor ended up 225 basis points for buying, compared to a 30-day average of 29 basis points. Flows remained low-key. Long-only investors concluded as small net buyers, driven by demand in macro products, slightly offset by supply in financials, while hedge fund flows were roughly flat with demand in tech/macro strategies against supply in discretionary sectors.
In housekeeping, we revised our forecasts for S&P 500 returns over 3, 6, and 12 months to 2%, 5%, and 8%. From current levels, these forecasts suggest index levels of 6,800, 7,000, and 7,200.
DERIVATIVES:
The market is rallying again with strong demand for volatility. Flows have been relatively active and generally favor buyers of QQQ volatility both in this market and overall. The outperformance in volatility is mainly seen in the middle of the curve, with short-dated straddles trading in the 30–40 basis point range in SPX. One notable trend to monitor is the correlation between volatility outperformance and spot market rallies. We expect this correlation to persist at all-time highs, and it's noteworthy that volatility remains robust on movements of less than 20 basis points, as long as those movements are upward. Additionally, with most street gamma positioned on the downside, it's more plausible to think that the market will continue to increase rather than pull back.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!