Type:
Bearish Momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1540'4
Pivot: 1494'0
Support: 1424'6
Preferred Case:
On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 1494'0 in line with the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1424'6 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 1540'4 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals:
Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.