Type:
Bullish Rise
Key Levels:
Resistance: 138.65
Pivot: 135.31
Support: 130.00
Preferred Case:
On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator, the MACD histogram is above zero and the RSI moving along the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price may rise from the pivot at 135.31 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to the 1st resistance at 138.65, where the swing high is.
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 130.00 where the swing low support is.
Fundamentals:
The latest monetary policy statement from the Bank of Japan indicates that the BoJ will continue holding short-term policy interest rates at -0.10% and purchase 10yr JGBs with no upper limit. The BoJ’s commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy continues to diverge from the other central banks’ path of monetary policy tightening, leading to expectations for the Yen to continue weakening against the other major currencies.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.