US Retail Sales Up Next
The June US Retail Sales figure will be the key data focus today. On the back of a solid inflation reading earlier in the week, there is plenty of attention on today’s release, not least because the battle between the market expectations and Fed guidance continues. This week, Fed chairman Jerome Powell pushed back against rising inflation once again telling markets that despite the recovery progress so far, there is still a “long way to go” before the bank considers raising rates.
However, with inflation surging higher again last month and with the Fed having upgraded its dot plot forecasts, the market is itching to get long USD again. Today, the market is looking for retail sales to print 0.4% on the core reading and -0.4% on the headline reading. While both readings would mark a firm improvement from the negative readings seen last month, it will likely take a solid beat to amplify USD upside here.
Where to Trade US Retail Sales?
GBPUSD
GBPUSD continues to hold in a consolidation pattern around the neckline of the large head & shoulders pattern, and the 1.3800 level support. While MACD and RSI are both positive, a break higher in USD today could fuel the move south, targeting 1.3676 initially and 1.3461 thereafter. Concerns over the impact of the government’s reopening on July 19th, amidst rising COVID cases, is also weighing on GBP sentiment here.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.