AUDJPY On Watch
AUDJPY price action is worth monitoring here. The recent ascent above the 94.23 level saw plenty of bearish divergence before the market topped out and corrected lower. Price is currently holding a ledge of support at the 90.76 level. While this region holds, the focus remains on a continued grind higher. However, if we fail to break above the 94.23 level, the market is starting to look like a topping pattern, suggesting room for a break lower. Bears can trade a break of the 90.76 lows targeting 89.13 initially and 87.35 thereafter. Retail market is heavily short the pair currently, so a further stab at the highs looks likely. However, this is certainly one to monitor heading into next week and given the current extension in JPY shorts, would likely move very quickly if we start to see a JPY short squeeze.
Keep An Eye On
JPY is currently huge pressure as a result of BOJ/Fed and BOJ/G10 central bank monetary policy divergence. However, with the market so heavily short JPY, there Is plenty of room for a short squeeze. Additionally, yesterday’s dismal US Q1 GDP print shows that the market might be getting carried away with itself regarding the Fed. Any change in the current hyper-hawkish Fed narrative would likely create room for such a short squeeze in JPY, sending AUDJPY lower near term.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.