Type:
Bearish Momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: 104.47
Pivot: 101.56
Support: 95.17
Preferred Case:
On the H4, with price moving within a descending channel and RSI moving along a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 101.56 where the pullback resistance and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are to 1st support at 95.17 in line with pullback support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 104.47 where the pullback resistance is.
Fundamentals:
Due to the uncertainty over the German gas crisis and supply constraint of oil , we have a bullish bias on oil . We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.