US Equity Positioning and Key Levels
FICC and Equities
27 May 2025 |

Consolidated Recap of GS Positioning Metrics

Summary:

  1. CTA Corner:

    • CTAs are predominantly sellers across most markets outside the US. Buy estimates for the next week and month remain relatively small.

  2. GS PB:

    • The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate increased by +0.34% from 5/16 to 5/22 (compared to MSCI World TR at -0.55%). This was driven by alpha gains of +0.91% from the long side, partially offset by beta losses of -0.57%.

    • The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate rose by +1.54% during the same period, with alpha gains of +1.44% from the long side and beta gains of +0.09%.

  3. Buybacks:

    • The next blackout window is expected to begin around 6/16 and continue through approximately 7/25.

CTA Corner

CTA Flows:

  • Over the next 1 week:

    • Flat tape: Buyers $920M ($2.08B into the US)

    • Up tape: Sellers $249M ($2.28B into the US)

    • Down tape: Sellers $17B ($7.43B out of the US)

  • Over the next 1 month:

    • Flat tape: Buyers $1.8B ($1.86B into the US)

    • Up tape: Buyers $7.8B ($8.05B into the US)

    • Down tape: Sellers $125B ($35.29B out of the US)

Key Pivot Levels for SPX:

  • Short-term: 5698

  • Medium-term: 5765

  • Long-term: 5520