US Equity Positioning and Key Levels
FICC and Equities | 3 March 2025 |

Consolidated Recap of Goldman Sachs Positioning Metrics

Summary:

  1. CTA Corner:

    • CTAs are modeled long +$137bn in global equities (78th percentile) after selling -$23bn globally last week.

    • This cohort is expected to be sellers of SPX across all scenarios over the next week.

  2. GS PB Performance:

    • Equity Fundamental L/S Estimate: Fell -1.54% between 2/21 and 2/27 (vs. MSCI World TR -3.23%), driven by beta of -1.75%, partially offset by alpha of +0.21% from short-side gains.

    • Equity Systematic L/S Estimate: Rose +2.34% during the same period, driven by alpha of +1.90% from long-side gains and beta of +0.44%.

  3. Buybacks:

    • Last week saw a 10% increase compared to the prior week. Activity reached 1.2x 2024 YTD ADTV and 2.0x 2023 YTD ADTV.

    • The next blackout period is expected to begin around 3/17.

CTA Corner – Detailed Flows:

1-Week Outlook:

  • Flat market: -$48bn to sell (-$11.6bn SPX to sell)

  • Rising market: -$22bn to sell (-$4.5bn SPX to sell)

  • Falling market: -$69bn to sell (-$24bn SPX to sell)

1-Month Outlook:

  • Flat market: -$68bn to sell (-$8bn SPX to sell)

  • Rising market: +$28bn to buy (+$11bn SPX to buy)

  • Falling market: -$181bn to sell (-$46bn SPX to sell)

Key SPX Pivot Levels:

  • Short-term: 6031

  • Medium-term: 5897