Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs - Equity Positioning & Key Levels
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Equity Positioning and Key Levels|16 December 2024 |
Summary:
1.CTA Corner:We have CTAs modeled long +$129bn of global equities(75th%tile) after buying +$25bn of equities last week globally (link).
2.GS PB:The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate fell-0.40% between 12/6 and 12/12 (vs MSCI World TR-0.57%), driven bybeta of-0.11% and alpha of-0.29% on the back of long side losses. The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate fell-1.36% duringthe same period, driven by beta of-0.56% and alpha of-0.8% on theback of long side losses.
3.Buybacks:We estimate the next blackout period will begin ~12/20. Atthat point, we estimate +40% of S&P 500 corporates will be in blackout.We estimate blackout typically starts ~4-6 weeks prior to earningsrelease and ends ~1-2 days post release(link).
CTA CornerCTA Flows:
•Over the next 1 week...Flat tape: +$12bn to buy (+$2.3bn SPX to buy)oUp tape: +$18bn to buy (+$1.6bn SPX to buy) Down tape:$25bn to sell (-$4.2bn SPX to sell)
•Over the next 1 month...Flat tape: +$18bn to buy (+$4.5bn SPX to buy)oUp tape: +$46bn to buy (+$3.8bn SPX to buy) Down tape:$169bn to sell (-$36.8bn SPX to sell)
•Key pivot levels for SPX:Short term: 5954 Med term: 5706 Long term: 5222
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!