Gold Capped at Resistance
Gold prices are on watch as we start the new week with the futures market still knocking on the door of the 2,949.88-resistance level which has capped the current rally for now. The market made its fourth consecutive attempt on the level today showing that bullish pressure remains though has not yet been able to breach the level. With the US Dollar bouncing off the lows currently, there is a chance we could see a downside correction develop in gold if the greenback finds its feet this week and starts to recover higher. Traders will be keeping a close eye on incoming news flow this week linked to trade tariffs particularly with the Mexico/Canada tariff decision deadline approaching next week.
Safe-Haven Demand
Safe-haven demand has been a key driver of the push higher in gold prices this year. Uncertainty around the US trade war, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks around the globe, mean that investors have continued to turn to gold as a store of capital. Indeed, with USD retreating lower in recent weeks, gold support has grown stronger. However, with the Israel-Hamas ceasefire continuing to hold, and the growing prospect of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, we could see safe-haven demand start to diminish across the remainder of H1. On the other hand, if either of these situations see a breakdown and fresh escalation in violence, gold prices are vulnerable to a sharp move higher.
US Data on Watch
Traders will also be watching US data this week. If USD climbs on any upside data surprises and/or hawkish Fed commentary, this should keep the current gold rally capped for now. However, any downside surprises in data and/or dovish Fed commentary should provide support for gold near-term. As such, plenty of two-way risk to monitor this week.
Technical Views
Gold
The rally in gold prices has stalled for now into the 2,949.88 level and the bull channel highs. Momentum studies have weakened, suggesting risks of a correction lower. However, the bull outlook remains while price holds above support at 2,859.15. The broader bull outlook (medium term) remains intact while price holds above 2,789.40.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.