FX Options Insights For Non-Farm Payrolls
The premiums for EUR/USD FX options have surged significantly alongside the spot rate this week. Implied volatility has climbed to levels last observed in mid-January but tends to peak as the spot rate stabilizes. The 1-month expiry benchmark has risen from 7.8 to 8.6 and now stands at 9.2. Although overnight expiry has retreated from its highs, it remains notably elevated ahead of the NFP release. The premium break-even for a vanilla straddle is now 75 USD pips in either direction, compared to an average of around 40 USD pips last week.
Persistent weakness in USD/JPY has driven option-implied volatility to levels unseen since 2025. Demand for puts has stayed robust since USD/JPY hit 152.00, pushing the premium for JPY calls over puts in risk reversals to peak 2025 levels. Barriers and knockout triggers at 145.00 could lead to accelerated FX losses if breached. Overnight expiry option premiums have reached 2025 highs, especially following the NFP release. The premium break-even is now set at 150.00 JPY pips in both directions, reflecting heightened market caution over potential FX losses rather than gains.
AUD/USD has found support near 0.6300 after declining from the Asia session high of 0.6337. A significant option expiry at 0.6300, amounting to A$2.5 billion, is set for the NY cut.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!