Gold Higher on Trump Impact
Gold prices are trading at fresh highs today as the safe-haven metal continues to appreciate ahead of the US elections next week. Gold and BTC have been the standout winners over October with gold futures on course to end the month around 5% higher, now up more than 35% on the year overall. The surge higher in gold reflects growing uncertainty over the prospect of Trump being re-elected next week. In recent weeks there has been a shift in polling support towards the former president with some betting sites, such as crypto platform Polymarket, showing Trump firmly in the lead. Indeed, with most national polls showing Harris only ahead by around 1%, traders are pricing in the risk of a Trump win, driving safe haven support into gold.
US Data Due
Looking ahead today, focus will be on incoming US data with the ADP figure and advance GDP release both due. USD softened yesterday in response to a weaker JOLTS job opening number, stoking expectations of a weaker NFP showing on Friday. If we see any further USD selling in response to incoming data weakness, this should help drive gold higher still. Near-term, only a firm upside surprise in Friday’s data is likely to derail current gold buying or a negative Trump development in the elections race.
Technical Views
Gold
The rally in gold has been framed by a tight bull channel, with price recently breaking above the 2,684 level. While the bull channel holds, and with momentum studies bullish, focus is on a further push higher. Below 2,684, 2,604 will be the next support to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.