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DXY Data Watch
The US Dollar is starting the week on a softer footing following Friday’s US core PCE data which confirmed a monthly reading of 0.1%, down from 0.3% the month prior. Looking ahead this week there is plenty of US data to focus on with US ISM PMI data due today, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the June jobs report on Friday. Price action in USD suggests some caution among bulls with the risk that a weaker set of data on Friday could see September rate cut chances rising, leading the greenback lower near-term.
EUR Rally
The Dollar is also being weighed on by a rally in EUR today on the back of Marine Le Pen’s party winning the first round of the French elections. Despite the victory, the voting was not enough to secure a majority for the far-right party and traders now sense that a multi-party deal will be needed to form the next government, avoiding the more anti-EU impact of a far-right majority.
NFP Focus
Looking ahead this week, the implications for USD are clear. While the minutes will be a big focus point, Friday’s data will be the headline event. If we see a further softening of the jobs market, this should boost September easing chances, dragging USD lower near-term. However, any surprise upside will see those chances diluted, pushing USD higher near-term.
Technical Views
DXY
The rally has stalled for now with price reversing from last week’s highs back below the 105.70 level. Price is now testing the bull channel lows once again, with 104.97 the next support level to note below. 104.05 sits as deeper support.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.