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Daily Market Outlook, November 18, 2022
Overnight
Asian markets are mostly mixed, with US equity futures also declining after some tough talk from US Fed speakers, specifically St Louis member Bullard who suggested that a 5% rate was a minimum terminal rate objective with the potential for a 7% rate being eyed by the committee.
In the UK following Chancellor Hunt’s bleak warnings regarding the economic outlook, UK retail sales released this morning posted a modest 0.6% gain for October reversing the large declines of the prior two months of data, however, this is still 6.1% lower than this time last year. The pop in retail sales was accompanied by an improvement in the GFK consumer confidence reading which edged up this month although this is from record lows levels.
Day Ahead
In the UK focus will be on Bank of England's external member Jonathan Haskel who speaks at a conference later, the discussion is regarding fiscal policy, markets will pay attention to his comments in light of yesterday’s bleak UK budget update and how it may feed into his thoughts on the path of UK interest rates.
In the US markets will be watching October existing home sales for further signs of weakness driven by the increase in interest rates, data yesterday showed continued declines in housing construction to 4.2%
Overnight Headlines
Fed's Kashkari: Not Stopping Rate Hikes Until Inflation Peaks
Poll: Fed To Hike Rate By 50Bps, Peak Policy Rate Still Higher
White House's Adviser: Dedicated To Tech Antitrust Legislation
Mortgage Rates Reach Biggest Drop Since 1981, Fall To 6.61%
PBoC Adviser Says China Growth Target Should Be at Least 5%
Japan Inflation Hits 40-Year High, Weak Yen Fans Import Costs
BoJ Governor Kuroda Rules Out Hike Until Wages Rise Further
North Korea Fires Suspected ICBM After Warning On Exercises
UK Consumer Confidence Ticks Up In Sigh Of Relief After Truss
Italy PM Meloni Set To Present EUR30 Billion Budget To Cabinet
SNB's Maechler: Rates Will Hike If Inflation Still Above Estimates
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3900
Technicals
Primary support is 3900
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3900 opens a test of 3840
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0250
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0250
Primary upside objective is 1.0620
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05
Failure below 1.0230 opens a test of 1.0180
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200-05 (839M), 1.0225 (687M), 1.0240-50 (597M) 1.0300-10 (1.19BLN), 1.0325 (678M), 1.0350 (206M) 1.0450 (2.7BLN), 1.0475 (268M), 1.0500 (566M)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1730
1.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1730
Primary upside objective 1.2050
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970
Failure below 1.17 opens a test of 1.1640
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1700 (560M), 1.1750-55 (257M)
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140
139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary resistance is 141.50
Primary downside objective is 136
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138
Acceptance above 141.60 opens a test of 143.10
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.90-00 (660M), 139.45 (567M), 140.00-05 (413M) 140.50 (1.4BLN), 142.00 (590M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6600
.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is .66
Primary upside objective is .6900
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775
Failure below .66 opens a test of .6550
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6650 (528M), 0.6660 (701M), 0.6750 (202M)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800
Technicals
Intraday 157700 is primary support
Primary upside objective is 18325
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000
Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!