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Crude Lower on Monday
Oil prices are under pressure on Monday as traders brace for the latest OPEC+ meeting later this week. The cartel and associated allies are widely expected to extend and/or deepen current supply cuts, which should ultimately help lift prices. However, some recent disagreement within the group as well as the postponing of this month’s meeting, has caused some uncertainty for oil traders, weighing on prices currently.
Macro Drivers
Crude futures are currently down around 20% from the YTD highs seen earlier this year. Price peaked on news of the Israel-Hamas war breaking out. However, fears of a wider Middle East conflict developing soon subsided, leading speculative oil longs to unwind. Added to this backdrop, concerns over the health of the Chinese economy as well as fears that the US economy is slowing down, have also weighed on the demand outlook for oil.
Bearish Crude Risks
Looking ahead to this week’s OPEC+ meeting, if current supply cuts are extended beyond their current endpoint, this should have some supportive effect for oil. However, it would likely take a deepening of supply cuts to help drive a fresh rally in crude. As such, risks remain tilted lower with the risk that the OPEC+ meeting fails to deliver fresh bullish incentive.
Technical Views
Crude
The failure at the 77.64 level has seen the market reversing lower once again with the bear channel. 72.61 is the key support level to watch for now with a break lower there opening the way for a continuation down to the 66.79 level in line with bearish momentum studies readings.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.