Crude Rally Causing Concern

The rally in oil prices has been one of the standout market developments over Q3. Following a muted H1, crude prices were driven firmly higher over summer in response to a series of cuts from OPEC+, including additional voluntary cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia. Further cuts from the two producers, and the subsequent extension of these cuts through year end has fuelled a firmly bullish shift in sentiment. With supply levels quickly being stripped back, prices have been strongly underpinned recently and, with the risk of further OPEC+ cuts clearly visible, look poised for further upside near-term.

US Yields Weighing on Crude

However, in recent days crude prices have pulled back from YTD highs. The driver behind the move has been the sharp uptick in US yields. On the back of the Fed signalling this month that further tightening might still be necessary, along with keeping rates higher for longer, US yields have hit levels last seen in 2007/2008. The uptick in yields is being exacerbated by fears of a partial US shutdown in the light of the Republican-driven effort to pass hotly contested spending cuts. Looking ahead this week, any further uptick in US yields is likely to keep oil prices pressured, meaning incoming US data will be closely watched.

Technical Views

Crude

The breakout rally in crude has seen the market framed by a narrow bullish channel over recent months. Price has recently stalled into the 93.47 level and with momentum studies weakening, a deeper correction might be seen. While we hold above the 82.59 level, however, the focus is on a further push higher into 100 towards year end.