UK Inflation Falls Again

Good news today for UK consumers, and also the BOE, with the latest UK economic data reflecting a third consecutive monthly decline in consumer prices. Annualised inflation printed at 10.1% last month, down from the prior month’s 10.5% and now down a full 1% from the peak inflation reading of 11.1% seen in Q4 2022. Notably, the reading was also below market projections for a 10.3% reading.

Data Breakdown

Looking at the breakdown of the data, transport costs were the biggest driver of the decline at 3.1% from 6.5% prior while restaurants and hotels also marked a decline at 10.8% vs 11.3% prior. However, housing and utilities costs were seen creating upward pressure at 26.7% vs 26.6% prior as were health costs at 6.3% vs 5.1% prior. Alcohol and tobacco were also higher at 5.1% vs 3.7% prior.

Core Inflation Falls Also

A further encouraging sign was that core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, was also seen falling. Annualise core inflation printed 5.8%, down from 6.3% prior, and below the 6.2% the market was looking for. While clearly still well above the BOE’s 2% target, inflation is now moving in the right direction at least and the big question on traders’ lips is: what does this mean for the BOE?

At its last meeting, along with hiking rates to their highest level in 14 years, the BOE signalled that inflation had likely peaked in the UK. The BOE has been a reluctant tightener of monetary policy throughout this cycle (often accused of being slow and lacklustre) and so today’s data will no doubt bolster the view that the bank is getting closer to pausing rate hikes.

Downside Risks into March BOE

Ahead of the data, the latest Reuters poll showed that the majority of forecasters were looking for the BOE to pivot down to a smaller .25% hike in March. In light of this data, there are now downside risks that the BOE pauses altogether. At the very least, if the BOE does hike again, that will likely mark the start of the pause date – which is what the market will be focused on anyway. With this in mind, there are downside risks for GBP into the meeting.

Technical Views

GBPUSD

The pair continues to hold within the triangle pattern which has framed the recent consolidation here.  With 1.2195 holding as resistance, the pair looks vulnerable to a drop lower, in line with weakening momentum studies. Should we see a break of the triangle lows, 1.1474 is the next support to note.