Type:
Bearish Momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: 0.67660
Pivot: 0.67175
Support: 0.66485
Preferred Case:
On the H4, with RSI moving along the descending trendline and price moving along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 0.67175 where the 127.2% fibonacci extension , 100% fibonacci projection and swing low support are. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 0.66485 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 100% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.67660 where the overlap resistance is.
Fundamentals:
There was an increase in employment rate and decrease in unemployment rate for AUD today, giving us a bullish bias for the Australian Dollar. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
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Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.