UK General Elections Voting Now Open
The UK public is voting today as part of its third general in just four years. Far more than recent elections, the 2019 elections have become a major focal point for UK traders and citizens alike. The vast difference between the two main parties over how to handle Brexit as well as over a range of other key policies is more severe than it has been over the last four years and, as a result, the result of today’s elections will have a huge impact on UK markets as well as the socio-political outlook for UK citizens.
Over recent days, the final polling results have been coming in and with the Conservative party seen holding onto an average lead of 9.6% over the Labour party, they remain the favourite to win today. It is worth noting that Labour has been seen increasing its gain in some polls, narrowing the margin between it and the Labour party. However, with Corbyn battling to get above 35% in the polls, Johnson looks likely to hold onto his position as PM.
However, the YouGov MRP poll which has been heralded as the most accurate of the polls showed a surprise late surge or Labour. The latest results now forecast the predicted Conservative majority to have fallen from 68 seats to 28 seats over the last two weeks.
Despite the rise in support for Labour, the issue is that the majority of this increase has come from Remainer voters changing from pro-Lib Dem to pro-Labour. We haven’t actually seen a material increase in former Leave voters shifting towards Remain parties meaning that the skew between Leave and Remain voters remains roughly the same. Again, favouring a win for the Conservative party. However, the trajectory over recent days does raise very serious questions given the political surprises we have seen around voting events in recent years.
The campaign itself has been an interesting one with plenty of key moments. Despite the huge amount of UK media attention given to the accusations of antisemitism which have plagued the Labour party, the more embarrassing (and sometimes shocking) moments of the last few weeks belong to the Conservative party.
Johnson Refuses Interview With Andrew Neil
BBC interview Andrew Neil has a long history of interviewing PM candidates during election campaigns. Neil himself explains that the interviews are a valuable function for helping the pubic understand their candidates and holding political leaders accountable to scrutiny. While each of the other leaders of the main parties engaged in interviews, the PM outwardly refused to do so, leading to televised criticism from Andrew Neil during his prime-time show in which he delivered an angry monologue in front of an empty chair, which should have belonged to the PM.
Johnson Caught on Tape Discussing Assaulting Journalist
One particularly shocking incident involved the emergence of recordings which captured a young Boris Johnson discussing the assault of journalist Stuart Collier with his friend Darius Guppy. The recordings reveal Guppy looking for Johnson to provide the address of Collier so that Guppy could send round some muscle to assault Collier over an expose he wrote on Guppy. The recordings show that Johnson was under no illusion as to what Guppy was asking for and is heard agreeing to help supply Guppy the address.
Johnson Snatches Reporters Phone
Over the weekend, images surfaced showing a very sick four-year-old lying on the floor of an NHS waiting room for several hours awaiting treatment. The image has become the headline symbol for criticism of the Tory’s over the NHS being severely underfunded over the last decade. During a televised interview, a reporter tried to broach the subject with Johnson, attempting to show Johnson the image on his phone. Johnson reacted erratically by snatching the phone out of the reporter’s hands and putting the phone in his own pocket.
Johnson Scurries into Fridge to Avoid Interview
During a televised campaign rally, Johnson suffered another gaffe as he was seen retreating into a fridge to avoid questions over his refusal to appear on Good Morning Britain. The interview was attempting to question the PM during a publicity stunt involving a milk float but the PM, keen to avoid the question, ran back inside the milk fridge.
Who Is Supporting Who?
While the Tories continue to be supported by all the big names in business, it will be interesting to see if the wealth of cultural figures who have come out in support for the Labour party will be able to rally the youth vote, which could hold the key to swinging the election. Over the course of the campaign we have seen major names such as Stormzy, Frankie Boyle and Steve Coogan publicising their support for Labour and urging people to vote against the Conservative party. The "world's smartest man", Stephen Hawking, has also voiced his support for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn.
Voting Underway
With Voters now taking to the polls, the first indications as to who might win the election will come shortly after 10pm UK time when the first exit polls start coming through. The majority of the vote should be accounted for by the early hours of Friday morning with final confirmation coming as European traders sit down at their desks on Friday morning.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
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Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!